To understand where the IP camera market is headed, I think it’s important to understand how one of these things are put together.
Like most high tech devices, each product is really an amalgamation of parts from different manufacturers. In fact many products are the result of tight, but perhaps unappreciated, collaboration of several (sometimes competing) companies. I’d recommend listening to Freakonomics rundown of the “I, Pencil” essay (starts 7 minutes in).
So, an IP camera is not a pencil, but just like all pencil manufacturers don’t manufacture every single part of the pencil, but instead, they purchase the parts (graphite, brass, paint and so on) and every manufacturer puts the pencil together following roughly the same pattern.
And, so, when it comes to IP cameras, they too are composed of parts that are available to everyone who wants to start making cameras.
You’ll need a couple of things: A lens, a sensor, some circuitry and some code.
You’re not going to start making your own lenses or sensors, are you? Probably not, so you’ll get the lenses from a lens maker (and they may even outsource their manufacturing process even further), and the sensor from either Sony or Canon.
You’re not going to design your own CPU either (unless you’re Axis). Today, you’d be better off grabbing an ARM platform and use that to drive the sensor and interface. The other advantage is that ARM is well supported in the software world, so you’re already halfway there.
Now that you have the basics, you need to write some code to get it all working together. If you went the ARM route, it’s pretty simple to get a linux kernel running. Well.. “simple” is depends on your level of skill, but finding a few geeks who can do this shouldn’t take long. So you grab the Linux kernel, add Apache or perhaps GoAhead, you can add gStreamer too (do check the link, it is a great presentation by Axis) . The next thing you know, you have a jumble of cables and breadboards, burns on your fingers from the soldering iron, you haven’t seen your kids in 4 days and the smell is getting a little hard to stomach.
On top of that, you need to wrap this in an enclosure. There’s regulations to follow, tests that need to be carried out and so on. Then you have the nightmare of maintaining all those pieces of code, and trust me – if you wrote everything yourself, it would take even longer and be much harder to test and maintain.
What if there was a company, that could do all of the above? And just stick my name on the box? After all, my company would pick the same lens, the same sensor, the same board and the same software, so why not do it?
I have no intention of starting production of a Raspberry Pi Zero based IP camera, but I know that I can make one for ~$40 (and that’s buying all the parts retail). Not only will this thing work as an IP camera, it can work as a full fledged stand-alone VMS.
In other words, the question is: if some washed up coder in Copenhagen can build a fully functional “IP camera” for $40, I think you’re going to face a tough time if you’ve based your entire organization around selling your cheapest cameras for $250+ (they may be “even more good enough”, but who cares?).
Obviously, my camera is not going to be materially different from the other guy’s cameras. We’re all going to use the same bits and pieces, including software, even the damn protocols are going to be the same.
So, I think we’re going to see a race to the bottom in terms of prices. The cameras will look and perform almost identically across brands, use the same protocols, and be completely interchangeable, much to the chagrin of the incumbents, so the USP for the brands in this realm will have be something else.
VMS Software, perhaps…